Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Compass Group PLC (XGR2.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.98 - $79.16$47.84
Multi-Stage$23.35 - $25.45$24.38
Blended Fair Value$36.11
Current Price$25.71
Upside40.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.10%8.05%0.560.460.270.000.320.440.421.200.380.40
YoY Growth--21.80%69.38%0.00%-100.00%-26.86%5.19%-65.26%217.98%-6.68%55.98%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.28%1.49%0.00%2.74%2.19%2.08%6.02%1.93%2.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,475.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,526.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)948.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)495.16309.48185.69
Cash Retained (M)948.94948.94948.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-495.16-309.48-185.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)453.78639.46763.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,712.251,712.251,712.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.370.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.370.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.98$47.84$79.16
Upside / Downside24.38%86.08%207.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,475.822,636.752,808.142,990.673,185.063,392.093,493.86
Payout Ratio61.67%67.34%73.00%78.67%84.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,526.881,775.522,050.032,352.722,686.103,052.883,231.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,608.951,624.201,639.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,683.431,715.491,747.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,750.741,801.001,852.21
Year 4 PV (M)1,811.311,880.961,952.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,865.511,955.612,049.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,265.2132,775.3334,343.24
Equity Value (M)39,985.1441,752.6043,584.55
Shares Outstanding (M)1,712.251,712.251,712.25
Fair Value$23.35$24.38$25.45
Upside / Downside-9.17%-5.16%-0.99%

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