Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.15 - $558.96$365.44
Multi-Stage$98.01 - $107.57$102.70
Blended Fair Value$234.07
Current Price$98.86
Upside136.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.79%0.00%0.270.240.230.220.210.190.130.040.000.00
YoY Growth--9.07%5.81%3.76%7.73%7.67%52.33%201.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.84%1.10%0.66%0.40%0.91%0.27%0.21%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.476.553.93
Cash Retained (M)47.0247.0247.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.47-6.55-3.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.5540.4743.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.3818.3818.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.202.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.202.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.282.492.64
WACC / Discount Rate5.77%5.77%5.77%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$138.15$365.44$558.96
Upside / Downside39.75%269.66%465.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.3755.0257.8060.7263.7967.0269.03
Payout Ratio10.22%26.17%42.13%58.09%74.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.3514.4024.3535.2747.2360.3263.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.77%5.77%5.77%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)13.4813.6113.74
Year 2 PV (M)21.3521.7722.18
Year 3 PV (M)28.9629.8130.67
Year 4 PV (M)36.3237.7439.19
Year 5 PV (M)43.4345.5647.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,658.221,739.451,823.83
Equity Value (M)1,801.781,887.931,977.38
Shares Outstanding (M)18.3818.3818.38
Fair Value$98.01$102.70$107.57
Upside / Downside-0.86%3.88%8.81%

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