Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.68 - $646.37$248.64
Multi-Stage$87.31 - $95.42$91.29
Blended Fair Value$169.97
Current Price$140.14
Upside21.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.99%13.47%1.461.311.181.110.250.950.820.680.580.48
YoY Growth--11.05%10.83%6.96%350.30%-74.06%16.15%20.75%17.37%19.61%16.82%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.38%1.50%1.81%0.35%1.96%1.51%1.63%1.46%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,119.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,793.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,326.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,023.80639.88383.93
Cash Retained (M)3,326.003,326.003,326.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,023.80-639.88-383.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,302.202,686.132,942.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,131.001,131.001,131.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.042.382.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.591.591.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.042.382.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.623.964.19
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$141.68$248.64$646.37
Upside / Downside1.10%77.43%361.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,119.005,451.745,806.106,183.496,585.427,013.477,223.88
Payout Ratio35.03%46.02%57.02%68.01%79.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,793.002,508.953,310.394,205.435,202.836,312.136,682.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,297.112,318.892,340.66
Year 2 PV (M)2,774.992,827.842,881.20
Year 3 PV (M)3,227.613,320.273,414.68
Year 4 PV (M)3,655.963,796.563,941.17
Year 5 PV (M)4,060.954,257.104,460.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,731.5286,727.4890,876.38
Equity Value (M)98,748.15103,248.14107,914.84
Shares Outstanding (M)1,131.001,131.001,131.00
Fair Value$87.31$91.29$95.42
Upside / Downside-37.70%-34.86%-31.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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