Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.72 - $34.82$28.37
Multi-Stage$51.37 - $56.42$53.85
Blended Fair Value$41.11
Current Price$13.18
Upside211.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%2.670.872.371.260.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--205.70%-63.12%88.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--17.19%4.53%12.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)291.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.3236.4521.87
Cash Retained (M)31.2631.2631.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.32-36.45-21.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)-27.06-5.199.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)115.89115.89115.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.23-0.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.012.202.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.72$28.37$34.82
Upside / Downside72.35%115.22%164.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)291.59288.67285.79282.93280.10277.30285.62
Payout Ratio89.28%89.42%89.57%89.71%89.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.33258.15255.98253.82251.69249.57264.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)239.53241.97244.42
Year 2 PV (M)220.38224.90229.47
Year 3 PV (M)202.77209.04215.44
Year 4 PV (M)186.56194.30202.27
Year 5 PV (M)171.65180.59189.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,932.445,189.285,456.71
Equity Value (M)5,953.336,240.086,538.20
Shares Outstanding (M)115.89115.89115.89
Fair Value$51.37$53.85$56.42
Upside / Downside289.77%308.55%328.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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