Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.85 - $438.22$223.16
Multi-Stage$51.65 - $56.42$53.99
Blended Fair Value$138.57
Current Price$25.74
Upside438.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.16%11.71%1.381.250.840.850.850.850.800.670.650.62
YoY Growth--11.09%48.27%-0.80%-0.67%-0.07%6.43%19.61%3.07%4.80%35.66%
Dividend Yield--5.55%6.60%3.92%2.62%1.98%3.18%2.37%1.60%1.67%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)478.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)301.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.6659.7935.87
Cash Retained (M)177.22177.22177.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.66-59.79-35.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.56117.44141.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.07217.07217.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.540.65
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.540.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.761.932.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$96.85$223.16$438.22
Upside / Downside276.28%766.97%1,602.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)478.30509.39542.50577.76615.32655.31674.97
Payout Ratio62.95%68.36%73.77%79.18%84.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)301.08348.21400.19457.47520.49589.78624.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)321.11324.16327.20
Year 2 PV (M)340.33346.82353.36
Year 3 PV (M)358.77369.06379.56
Year 4 PV (M)376.43390.91405.80
Year 5 PV (M)393.35412.35432.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,420.589,875.6010,348.03
Equity Value (M)11,210.5711,718.8912,246.02
Shares Outstanding (M)217.07217.07217.07
Fair Value$51.65$53.99$56.42
Upside / Downside100.65%109.74%119.18%

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