Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS (ARASE.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$133.72 - $355.10$204.54
Multi-Stage$93.36 - $101.90$97.55
Blended Fair Value$151.05
Current Price$54.05
Upside179.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS21.09%0.00%1.000.560.660.650.490.380.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--79.36%-15.22%1.09%33.40%26.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.48%0.89%1.83%2.77%1.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,423.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)594.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)829.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)284.79177.99106.80
Cash Retained (M)829.84829.84829.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-284.79-177.99-106.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)545.06651.85723.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.00250.00250.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.612.89
LTM Dividend per Share2.382.382.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.612.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.564.985.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$133.72$204.54$355.10
Upside / Downside147.40%278.43%556.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,423.941,516.491,615.061,720.041,831.851,950.922,009.44
Payout Ratio41.72%51.38%61.03%70.69%80.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)594.09779.14985.721,215.881,471.781,755.821,858.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)707.47714.18720.89
Year 2 PV (M)812.74828.22843.85
Year 3 PV (M)910.30936.43963.06
Year 4 PV (M)1,000.551,039.021,078.60
Year 5 PV (M)1,083.861,136.211,190.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,825.0919,734.3420,678.40
Equity Value (M)23,340.0024,388.4125,475.35
Shares Outstanding (M)250.00250.00250.00
Fair Value$93.36$97.55$101.90
Upside / Downside72.73%80.49%88.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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