Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aegon N.V. (AGN.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.93 - $3.89$3.42
Multi-Stage$6.79 - $7.50$7.14
Blended Fair Value$5.28
Current Price$6.15
Upside-14.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.01%6.95%0.300.280.100.070.040.180.190.170.180.17
YoY Growth--5.47%195.81%38.02%92.06%-79.61%-5.79%11.56%-3.92%4.79%9.77%
Dividend Yield--5.25%5.03%2.44%1.45%0.90%7.71%4.29%3.09%3.70%3.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,272.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)572.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)699.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)254.40159.0095.40
Cash Retained (M)699.50699.50699.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-254.40-159.00-95.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)445.10540.50604.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,734.181,734.181,734.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate-9.79%-8.79%-7.79%
Fair Value$2.93$3.42$3.89
Upside / Downside-52.43%-44.31%-36.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,272.001,160.171,058.18965.15880.30802.91827.00
Payout Ratio45.01%54.01%63.00%72.00%81.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)572.50626.57666.70694.94713.06722.62764.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate-9.79%-8.79%-7.79%
Year 1 PV (M)572.20578.54584.89
Year 2 PV (M)556.03568.42580.95
Year 3 PV (M)529.29547.09565.28
Year 4 PV (M)495.96518.33541.43
Year 5 PV (M)459.01485.02512.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,167.199,686.6910,229.48
Equity Value (M)11,779.6712,384.0813,014.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,734.181,734.181,734.18
Fair Value$6.79$7.14$7.50
Upside / Downside10.45%16.12%22.03%

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