Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co., Ltd. (688606.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.07 - $34.09$29.02
Multi-Stage$39.40 - $43.05$41.19
Blended Fair Value$35.10
Current Price$68.95
Upside-49.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%2.916.612.691.350.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---55.99%145.20%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.97%11.55%3.79%1.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)233.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.9536.8422.11
Cash Retained (M)61.5861.5861.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.95-36.84-22.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.6324.7439.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.0180.0180.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.310.49
LTM Dividend per Share2.912.912.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.310.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.223.41
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.07$29.02$34.09
Upside / Downside-65.08%-57.91%-50.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.76291.81288.89286.00283.14280.31288.72
Payout Ratio79.11%81.29%83.46%85.64%87.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)233.17237.20241.12244.94248.66252.28267.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)213.46215.64217.82
Year 2 PV (M)195.28199.28203.33
Year 3 PV (M)178.52184.04189.67
Year 4 PV (M)163.09169.85176.82
Year 5 PV (M)148.91156.66164.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,252.632,369.932,492.06
Equity Value (M)3,151.883,295.403,444.43
Shares Outstanding (M)80.0180.0180.01
Fair Value$39.40$41.19$43.05
Upside / Downside-42.86%-40.26%-37.56%

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