Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd. (4928.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,762.26 - $4,571.29$3,563.27
Multi-Stage$3,548.84 - $3,870.19$3,706.58
Blended Fair Value$3,634.92
Current Price$4,465.00
Upside-18.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.39%13.09%224.94220.22214.93209.80205.00199.88179.97155.61124.49103.70
YoY Growth--2.14%2.47%2.44%2.34%2.56%11.06%15.65%25.00%20.05%57.77%
Dividend Yield--5.04%4.50%4.18%3.62%3.80%4.37%3.08%3.26%1.49%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,030.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,683.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,606.001,003.75602.25
Cash Retained (M)347.00347.00347.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,606.00-1,003.75-602.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,259.00-656.75-255.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.1634.1634.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share-36.86-19.23-7.47
LTM Dividend per Share224.94224.94224.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share-36.86-19.23-7.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend188.08205.71217.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$2,762.26$3,563.27$4,571.29
Upside / Downside-38.14%-20.20%2.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,030.008,280.518,538.838,805.219,079.919,363.179,644.06
Payout Ratio95.68%94.54%93.41%92.27%91.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,683.007,828.647,975.898,124.708,275.048,426.858,920.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)7,107.847,177.447,247.04
Year 2 PV (M)6,574.786,704.186,834.84
Year 3 PV (M)6,080.816,261.206,445.13
Year 4 PV (M)5,623.095,846.606,076.71
Year 5 PV (M)5,199.025,458.615,728.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,628.9195,154.0699,858.18
Equity Value (M)121,214.46126,602.10132,190.38
Shares Outstanding (M)34.1634.1634.16
Fair Value$3,548.84$3,706.58$3,870.19
Upside / Downside-20.52%-16.99%-13.32%

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