Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.58 - $14.62$11.94
Multi-Stage$14.40 - $15.79$15.08
Blended Fair Value$13.51
Current Price$7.30
Upside85.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.33%5.55%0.510.490.420.380.370.340.330.300.290.30
YoY Growth--2.87%18.76%10.99%2.42%7.41%4.93%9.61%1.71%-2.38%0.79%
Dividend Yield--7.39%9.35%9.34%7.87%6.62%6.63%5.77%4.87%6.03%6.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)366,746.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159,072.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)207,674.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73,349.2045,843.2527,505.95
Cash Retained (M)207,674.00207,674.00207,674.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-73,349.20-45,843.25-27,505.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)134,324.80161,830.75180,168.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)348,222.20348,222.20348,222.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$9.58$11.94$14.62
Upside / Downside31.19%63.53%100.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)366,746.00370,115.21373,515.37376,946.77380,409.69383,904.42395,421.55
Payout Ratio43.37%52.70%62.02%71.35%80.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159,072.00195,047.42231,670.42268,949.84306,894.67345,513.98365,764.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)177,643.59179,421.47181,199.35
Year 2 PV (M)192,171.61196,037.42199,941.72
Year 3 PV (M)203,188.57209,350.44215,635.65
Year 4 PV (M)211,167.29219,748.61228,588.85
Year 5 PV (M)216,527.09227,581.32239,082.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,014,975.584,219,949.714,433,211.19
Equity Value (M)5,015,673.725,252,088.975,497,659.26
Shares Outstanding (M)348,222.20348,222.20348,222.20
Fair Value$14.40$15.08$15.79
Upside / Downside97.31%106.61%116.27%

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