Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (600585.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.25 - $9.72$8.52
Multi-Stage$20.81 - $23.03$21.90
Blended Fair Value$15.21
Current Price$23.22
Upside-34.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.85%7.14%1.151.512.432.162.041.731.340.640.630.85
YoY Growth---24.14%-37.82%12.26%6.00%18.34%29.20%107.49%1.68%-25.48%47.73%
Dividend Yield--4.72%6.74%8.60%5.48%3.99%3.13%3.36%2.00%3.05%5.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,802.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,562.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,239.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,760.431,100.27660.16
Cash Retained (M)4,239.824,239.824,239.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,760.43-1,100.27-660.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,479.393,139.563,579.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,189.185,189.185,189.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.610.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.610.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate7.02%7.02%7.02%
Growth Rate-9.85%-8.85%-7.85%
Fair Value$7.25$8.52$9.72
Upside / Downside-68.78%-63.30%-58.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,802.158,022.807,312.466,665.006,074.885,537.005,703.11
Payout Ratio51.83%59.47%67.10%74.73%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,562.334,770.814,906.604,980.945,003.664,983.305,275.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.02%7.02%7.02%
Growth Rate-9.85%-8.85%-7.85%
Year 1 PV (M)4,408.914,457.824,506.73
Year 2 PV (M)4,190.454,283.934,378.45
Year 3 PV (M)3,931.264,063.544,198.76
Year 4 PV (M)3,649.623,814.283,984.44
Year 5 PV (M)3,359.053,549.553,748.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)88,434.5593,449.6798,689.78
Equity Value (M)107,973.84113,618.79119,506.75
Shares Outstanding (M)5,189.185,189.185,189.18
Fair Value$20.81$21.90$23.03
Upside / Downside-10.39%-5.70%-0.82%

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