Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings Company Limited (0631.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.94 - $163.12$82.53
Multi-Stage$18.81 - $20.57$19.67
Blended Fair Value$51.10
Current Price$6.16
Upside729.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.56%0.00%0.170.200.130.120.110.090.120.000.000.00
YoY Growth---13.02%56.33%3.43%14.38%22.67%-27.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.05%2.92%1.78%1.99%2.19%2.28%5.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,028.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,165.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,862.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)605.73378.58227.15
Cash Retained (M)1,862.721,862.721,862.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-605.73-378.58-227.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,256.981,484.131,635.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,692.443,692.443,692.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.94$82.53$163.12
Upside / Downside483.47%1,239.84%2,548.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,028.673,225.543,435.203,658.493,896.294,149.554,274.03
Payout Ratio38.50%48.80%59.10%69.40%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,165.961,573.992,030.152,538.953,105.323,734.593,953.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,451.431,465.191,478.94
Year 2 PV (M)1,726.291,759.171,792.36
Year 3 PV (M)1,990.822,047.972,106.21
Year 4 PV (M)2,245.322,331.672,420.48
Year 5 PV (M)2,490.052,610.322,735.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,555.5162,432.0665,418.71
Equity Value (M)69,459.4272,646.3875,951.89
Shares Outstanding (M)3,692.443,692.443,692.44
Fair Value$18.81$19.67$20.57
Upside / Downside205.38%219.39%233.92%

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