Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.37 - $301.35$154.57
Multi-Stage$66.65 - $72.66$69.60
Blended Fair Value$112.09
Current Price$38.97
Upside187.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.68%1.85%1.371.491.191.140.750.661.311.521.281.42
YoY Growth---7.73%25.49%3.85%52.39%13.03%-49.41%-13.73%19.22%-10.42%24.47%
Dividend Yield--3.53%4.70%5.61%5.54%2.89%3.94%4.43%5.53%4.00%4.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,898.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,346.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,551.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,779.601,737.251,042.35
Cash Retained (M)3,551.833,551.833,551.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,779.60-1,737.25-1,042.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)772.231,814.582,509.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,792.913,792.913,792.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.480.66
LTM Dividend per Share2.732.732.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.480.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.933.213.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$96.37$154.57$301.35
Upside / Downside147.29%296.64%673.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,898.0014,801.3715,763.4616,788.0817,879.3119,041.4619,612.71
Payout Ratio74.44%77.55%80.67%83.78%86.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,346.1711,479.1812,715.7814,064.6315,535.1017,137.3218,141.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,460.3910,559.5410,658.70
Year 2 PV (M)10,558.8610,759.9810,962.99
Year 3 PV (M)10,642.3910,947.9011,259.20
Year 4 PV (M)10,711.8011,123.7411,547.46
Year 5 PV (M)10,767.8311,287.9211,827.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)199,663.54209,307.37219,320.28
Equity Value (M)252,804.81263,986.44275,576.53
Shares Outstanding (M)3,792.913,792.913,792.91
Fair Value$66.65$69.60$72.66
Upside / Downside71.03%78.60%86.44%

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