DDM Analysis: VLO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$50.86 - $81.49	$64.72
Multi-Stage	$77.28 - $84.45	$80.80
Blended Fair Value	$72.76
Current Price	$170.26
Upside	-57.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.49%	9.59%	4.43	4.64	4.99	5.12	5.12	4.77	4.38	3.97	3.55	2.71
YoY Growth	-	-	-4.68%	-7.04%	-2.50%	0.13%	7.24%	8.98%	10.23%	11.79%	31.01%	53.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.35%	2.69%	3.58%	5.04%	7.15%	10.52%	5.06%	4.28%	5.36%	4.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,495.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	95.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	299.00	186.88	112.13
Cash Retained (M)	95.00	95.00	95.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-299.00	-186.88	-112.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-204.00	-91.88	-17.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	312.75	312.75	312.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.65	-0.29	-0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	4.48	4.48	4.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.65	-0.29	-0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.82	4.18	4.42
WACC / Discount Rate	8.32%	8.32%	8.32%
Growth Rate	0.75%	1.75%	2.75%
Fair Value	$50.86	$64.72	$81.49
Upside / Downside	-70.13%	-61.99%	-52.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,495.00	1,521.09	1,547.63	1,574.64	1,602.12	1,630.08	1,678.98
Payout Ratio	93.65%	92.92%	92.19%	91.46%	90.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,400.00	1,413.34	1,426.72	1,440.14	1,453.59	1,467.07	1,553.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.32%	8.32%	8.32%
Growth Rate	0.75%	1.75%	2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,291.96	1,304.78	1,317.61
Year 2 PV (M)	1,192.18	1,215.96	1,239.98
Year 3 PV (M)	1,100.04	1,133.12	1,166.86
Year 4 PV (M)	1,014.95	1,055.86	1,097.98
Year 5 PV (M)	936.39	983.80	1,033.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,632.50	19,575.77	20,556.87
Equity Value (M)	24,168.01	25,269.29	26,412.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	312.75	312.75	312.75
Fair Value	$77.28	$80.80	$84.45
Upside / Downside	-54.61%	-52.54%	-50.40%

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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener