Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.66 - $182.03$120.77
Multi-Stage$64.04 - $69.81$66.88
Blended Fair Value$93.82
Current Price$64.76
Upside44.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS68.54%0.00%1.531.291.040.560.240.110.012.040.010.91
YoY Growth--18.37%23.45%86.23%128.87%118.34%794.83%-99.39%21,458.37%-98.96%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.64%3.09%3.57%1.94%0.96%0.69%0.08%16.58%0.08%7.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)143.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8436.7722.06
Cash Retained (M)150.36150.36150.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.84-36.77-22.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.52113.59128.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.2966.2966.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.711.94
LTM Dividend per Share2.172.172.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.711.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.884.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.66$120.77$182.03
Upside / Downside30.73%86.49%181.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.19313.31333.68355.37378.46403.06415.16
Payout Ratio48.89%57.11%65.33%73.56%81.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)143.83178.94218.00261.39309.50362.76384.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)161.26162.78164.31
Year 2 PV (M)177.05180.42183.82
Year 3 PV (M)191.30196.80202.39
Year 4 PV (M)204.13211.98220.05
Year 5 PV (M)215.61226.02236.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,296.393,455.603,620.91
Equity Value (M)4,245.734,433.604,628.32
Shares Outstanding (M)66.2966.2966.29
Fair Value$64.04$66.88$69.81
Upside / Downside-1.11%3.27%7.81%

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