Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

United Palm Oil Industry Public Company Limited (UPOIC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.37 - $56.06$25.65
Multi-Stage$10.12 - $11.04$10.57
Blended Fair Value$18.11
Current Price$6.70
Upside170.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.25%-5.88%0.300.450.500.200.020.080.100.150.100.15
YoY Growth---33.34%-10.01%150.05%699.84%-68.75%-20.00%-33.33%50.00%-33.31%-72.74%
Dividend Yield--4.76%7.20%8.00%2.74%0.50%3.85%2.30%3.25%1.48%2.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)174.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.8621.7913.07
Cash Retained (M)67.3567.3567.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.86-21.79-13.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.5045.5754.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)324.05324.05324.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.37$25.65$56.06
Upside / Downside129.35%282.82%736.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)174.28185.61197.67210.52224.21238.78245.94
Payout Ratio61.35%67.08%72.81%78.54%84.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106.93124.51143.93165.35188.94214.90227.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)113.73114.81115.88
Year 2 PV (M)120.08122.37124.67
Year 3 PV (M)126.00129.62133.30
Year 4 PV (M)131.51136.57141.77
Year 5 PV (M)136.62143.22150.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,651.852,779.942,912.93
Equity Value (M)3,279.793,426.513,578.63
Shares Outstanding (M)324.05324.05324.05
Fair Value$10.12$10.57$11.04
Upside / Downside51.06%57.82%64.83%

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