Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Umpqua Holdings Corporation (UMPQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.09 - $25.53$20.39
Multi-Stage$21.96 - $24.03$22.97
Blended Fair Value$21.68
Current Price$17.85
Upside21.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS4.62%14.71%0.840.850.850.850.800.670.650.620.460.23
YoY Growth---0.80%-0.67%-0.07%6.43%19.61%3.07%4.80%35.66%95.46%9.89%
Dividend Yield--4.70%4.48%4.85%7.81%4.69%3.12%3.66%3.90%2.66%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)182.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.3542.0925.26
Cash Retained (M)154.48154.48154.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.35-42.09-25.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.13112.39129.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.41217.41217.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.520.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.520.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.361.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Fair Value$16.09$20.39$25.53
Upside / Downside-9.87%14.22%43.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.75343.81351.02358.37365.89373.56384.76
Payout Ratio54.13%61.30%68.48%75.65%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)182.27210.76240.36271.11303.05336.20355.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate1.10%2.10%3.10%
Year 1 PV (M)191.67193.57195.46
Year 2 PV (M)198.79202.74206.73
Year 3 PV (M)203.91210.03216.26
Year 4 PV (M)207.29215.61224.18
Year 5 PV (M)209.13219.68230.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,763.333,953.174,150.60
Equity Value (M)4,774.124,994.805,223.90
Shares Outstanding (M)217.41217.41217.41
Fair Value$21.96$22.97$24.03
Upside / Downside23.02%28.71%34.61%

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