DDM Analysis: UGI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$32.12 - $51.02	$40.73
Multi-Stage	$50.40 - $55.27	$52.79
Blended Fair Value	$46.76
Current Price	$33.26
Upside	40.58%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	3.36%	-2.20%	1.48	1.46	1.41	1.36	1.30	1.25	2.13	2.02	1.98	1.92
YoY Growth	-	-	1.26%	3.25%	4.05%	4.96%	3.30%	-41.04%	5.23%	2.21%	2.99%	3.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.45%	5.17%	5.75%	3.67%	2.82%	3.59%	4.71%	3.79%	4.21%	4.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	678.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	321.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	357.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	135.60	84.75	50.85
Cash Retained (M)	357.00	357.00	357.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-135.60	-84.75	-50.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	221.40	272.25	306.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	217.71	217.71	217.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.02	1.25	1.41
LTM Dividend per Share	1.47	1.47	1.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.02	1.25	1.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.49	2.73	2.88
WACC / Discount Rate	7.93%	7.93%	7.93%
Growth Rate	0.16%	1.16%	2.16%
Fair Value	$32.12	$40.73	$51.02
Upside / Downside	-3.42%	22.45%	53.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	678.00	685.87	693.84	701.90	710.05	718.30	739.84
Payout Ratio	47.35%	55.88%	64.41%	72.94%	81.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	321.00	383.24	446.88	511.95	578.47	646.47	684.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.93%	7.93%	7.93%
Growth Rate	0.16%	1.16%	2.16%
Year 1 PV (M)	351.57	355.08	358.59
Year 2 PV (M)	376.08	383.63	391.25
Year 3 PV (M)	395.24	407.20	419.39
Year 4 PV (M)	409.69	426.30	443.41
Year 5 PV (M)	420.01	441.40	463.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,019.13	9,478.44	9,956.28
Equity Value (M)	10,971.73	11,492.05	12,032.57
Shares Outstanding (M)	217.71	217.71	217.71
Fair Value	$50.40	$52.79	$55.27
Upside / Downside	51.52%	58.71%	66.18%

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UGI Corporation (UGI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener