Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Thai Optical Group Public Company Limited (TOG.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.73 - $63.86$30.73
Multi-Stage$12.58 - $13.72$13.14
Blended Fair Value$21.94
Current Price$7.10
Upside208.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.21%7.33%0.650.630.520.330.150.320.330.400.400.31
YoY Growth--3.11%21.13%57.57%120.00%-53.12%-3.03%-17.50%0.00%29.03%-3.13%
Dividend Yield--7.26%5.34%5.59%3.42%3.21%9.88%6.63%5.63%4.04%4.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)321.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)213.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.3140.1924.12
Cash Retained (M)108.33108.33108.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.31-40.19-24.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.0268.1484.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)474.32474.32474.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.73$30.73$63.86
Upside / Downside163.74%332.87%799.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)321.55342.45364.71388.42413.67440.56453.77
Payout Ratio66.31%71.05%75.79%80.52%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)213.22243.31276.40312.77352.70396.50419.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)222.03224.13226.24
Year 2 PV (M)230.17234.55238.98
Year 3 PV (M)237.67244.50251.45
Year 4 PV (M)244.57253.98263.65
Year 5 PV (M)250.90263.02275.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,780.875,011.795,251.54
Equity Value (M)5,966.216,231.966,507.46
Shares Outstanding (M)474.32474.32474.32
Fair Value$12.58$13.14$13.72
Upside / Downside77.16%85.05%93.23%

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