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Definitive Analysis

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Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,587.55 - $28,341.00$11,420.91
Multi-Stage$6,998.75 - $7,662.98$7,324.68
Blended Fair Value$9,372.79
Current Price$2,780.00
Upside237.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.32%8.51%178.50167.60149.97126.00113.03109.22134.1397.8497.5673.88
YoY Growth--6.50%11.76%19.02%11.48%3.49%-18.57%37.09%0.29%32.04%-6.31%
Dividend Yield--7.41%4.77%3.69%2.75%3.30%3.46%3.41%2.72%2.36%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,758,000.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,047,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)711,000.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,351,600.002,719,750.001,631,850.00
Cash Retained (M)711,000.00711,000.00711,000.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,351,600.00-2,719,750.00-1,631,850.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3,640,600.00-2,008,750.00-920,850.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99,061.7899,061.7899,061.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-36.75-20.28-9.30
LTM Dividend per Share212.46212.46212.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share-36.75-20.28-9.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend175.71192.19203.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Fair Value$6,587.55$11,420.91$28,341.00
Upside / Downside136.96%310.82%919.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,758,000.0022,687,996.9423,657,744.5224,668,941.7825,723,360.4126,822,847.7927,627,533.22
Payout Ratio96.73%95.39%94.04%92.69%91.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,047,000.0021,641,124.9222,247,587.2422,866,356.2023,497,375.8524,140,563.0125,555,468.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate3.27%4.27%5.27%
Year 1 PV (M)20,214,841.0920,410,580.4620,606,319.82
Year 2 PV (M)19,411,715.5219,789,461.0220,170,846.60
Year 3 PV (M)18,636,676.3719,183,309.5919,740,528.54
Year 4 PV (M)17,888,806.3518,591,800.8619,315,314.32
Year 5 PV (M)17,167,216.8618,014,616.1918,895,153.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)599,989,558.70629,605,934.64660,380,459.53
Equity Value (M)693,308,814.88725,595,702.77759,108,621.90
Shares Outstanding (M)99,061.7899,061.7899,061.78
Fair Value$6,998.75$7,324.68$7,662.98
Upside / Downside151.75%163.48%175.65%

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