Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Thai Life Insurance Public Company Limited (TLI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.50 - $10.80$9.11
Multi-Stage$12.29 - $13.48$12.88
Blended Fair Value$10.99
Current Price$10.00
Upside9.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS32.35%0.00%0.500.300.230.200.120.120.120.120.090.00
YoY Growth--66.65%29.62%17.37%60.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%33.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.38%3.31%1.82%1.23%0.77%0.77%0.77%0.77%0.58%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,107.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,725.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,382.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,421.571,513.48908.09
Cash Retained (M)6,382.496,382.496,382.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,421.57-1,513.48-908.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,960.924,869.005,474.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,464.1611,464.1611,464.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.98
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate-1.87%-0.87%0.13%
Fair Value$7.50$9.11$10.80
Upside / Downside-25.02%-8.92%8.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,107.8512,002.3611,897.7911,794.1411,691.3811,589.5211,937.21
Payout Ratio47.29%55.83%64.37%72.91%81.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,725.366,700.817,658.838,599.649,523.4810,430.5711,041.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate-1.87%-0.87%0.13%
Year 1 PV (M)6,075.136,137.046,198.95
Year 2 PV (M)6,295.346,424.306,554.57
Year 3 PV (M)6,408.646,606.576,808.53
Year 4 PV (M)6,434.426,700.746,975.25
Year 5 PV (M)6,389.266,721.517,067.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)109,333.90115,019.55120,939.31
Equity Value (M)140,936.69147,609.71154,544.06
Shares Outstanding (M)11,464.1611,464.1611,464.16
Fair Value$12.29$12.88$13.48
Upside / Downside22.94%28.76%34.81%

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