DDM Analysis: THG

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$198.22 - $327.26	$255.46
Multi-Stage	$332.52 - $365.58	$348.73
Blended Fair Value	$302.10
Current Price	$181.63
Upside	66.33%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-20.31%	6.36%	3.40	3.22	2.99	2.80	2.73	10.60	2.59	2.38	2.21	2.04
YoY Growth	-	-	5.89%	7.62%	6.56%	2.71%	-74.24%	309.54%	8.64%	7.96%	8.36%	10.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.96%	2.40%	2.33%	1.88%	2.11%	11.70%	2.25%	2.02%	2.45%	2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	631.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	129.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	502.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	126.38	78.99	47.39
Cash Retained (M)	502.60	502.60	502.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-126.38	-78.99	-47.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	376.22	423.61	455.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	36.45	36.45	36.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	10.32	11.62	12.49
LTM Dividend per Share	3.55	3.55	3.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share	10.32	11.62	12.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend	13.87	15.17	16.04
WACC / Discount Rate	7.07%	7.07%	7.07%
Growth Rate	0.07%	1.07%	2.07%
Fair Value	$198.22	$255.46	$327.26
Upside / Downside	9.13%	40.65%	80.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	631.90	638.63	645.43	652.31	659.25	666.28	686.27
Payout Ratio	20.46%	34.37%	48.28%	62.18%	76.09%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	129.30	219.50	311.60	405.64	501.64	599.65	634.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.07%	7.07%	7.07%
Growth Rate	0.07%	1.07%	2.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	202.98	205.01	207.04
Year 2 PV (M)	266.47	271.82	277.23
Year 3 PV (M)	320.79	330.51	340.41
Year 4 PV (M)	366.87	381.75	397.09
Year 5 PV (M)	405.55	426.22	447.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,557.86	11,096.06	11,655.99
Equity Value (M)	12,120.52	12,711.37	13,325.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	36.45	36.45	36.45
Fair Value	$332.52	$348.73	$365.58
Upside / Downside	83.08%	92.00%	101.28%

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The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener