Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SVI Public Company Limited (SVI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.91 - $23.07$13.53
Multi-Stage$6.42 - $7.00$6.71
Blended Fair Value$10.12
Current Price$5.95
Upside70.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-41.90%-5.66%0.140.260.230.110.002.050.080.080.080.00
YoY Growth---48.08%13.04%109.09%0.00%-100.00%2,338.10%-0.65%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.86%4.12%2.32%1.33%0.00%105.84%1.76%1.95%1.54%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)829.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)516.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)165.84103.6562.19
Cash Retained (M)312.41312.41312.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-165.84-103.65-62.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)146.57208.76250.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,138.302,138.302,138.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.91$13.53$23.07
Upside / Downside49.81%127.32%287.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)829.18883.07940.471,001.611,066.711,136.051,170.13
Payout Ratio62.32%67.86%73.39%78.93%84.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)516.77599.24690.25790.56900.991,022.441,082.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)543.74548.90554.05
Year 2 PV (M)568.32579.15590.07
Year 3 PV (M)590.63607.58624.86
Year 4 PV (M)610.79634.28658.44
Year 5 PV (M)628.93659.31690.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,787.9511,309.0111,850.01
Equity Value (M)13,730.3614,338.2314,968.29
Shares Outstanding (M)2,138.302,138.302,138.30
Fair Value$6.42$6.71$7.00
Upside / Downside7.92%12.70%17.65%

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