Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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S P V I Public Company Limited (SPVI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.33 - $15.53$8.38
Multi-Stage$3.61 - $3.94$3.77
Blended Fair Value$6.08
Current Price$2.34
Upside159.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.29%24.43%0.140.170.170.110.100.060.040.010.020.02
YoY Growth---17.12%0.03%59.01%9.99%66.59%50.16%233.52%-39.97%0.30%22.10%
Dividend Yield--10.58%5.72%3.36%1.69%1.77%3.97%3.03%0.88%2.66%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9710.616.36
Cash Retained (M)52.8852.8852.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.97-10.61-6.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.9142.2846.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.00400.00400.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.33$8.38$15.53
Upside / Downside127.83%258.23%563.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.8490.3696.23102.48109.15116.24119.73
Payout Ratio37.67%48.14%58.60%69.07%79.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.9643.4956.3970.7886.81104.62110.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.5839.9540.33
Year 2 PV (M)46.7047.5948.49
Year 3 PV (M)53.3454.8756.43
Year 4 PV (M)59.5361.8264.17
Year 5 PV (M)65.2968.4471.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,179.801,236.781,295.95
Equity Value (M)1,444.231,509.461,577.08
Shares Outstanding (M)400.00400.00400.00
Fair Value$3.61$3.77$3.94
Upside / Downside54.30%61.27%68.49%

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