Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

nForce Secure Public Company Limited (SECURE.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.74 - $12.41$10.55
Multi-Stage$13.89 - $15.21$14.53
Blended Fair Value$12.54
Current Price$12.90
Upside-2.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.03%0.00%0.650.300.180.350.560.650.620.000.000.00
YoY Growth--116.67%66.67%-49.22%-36.55%-13.91%3.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.70%2.14%1.12%1.24%3.49%4.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9716.8610.11
Cash Retained (M)62.9362.9362.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.97-16.86-10.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.9646.0852.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.74102.74102.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.450.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.450.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Fair Value$8.74$10.55$12.41
Upside / Downside-32.29%-18.24%-3.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.85133.54132.25130.97129.70128.45132.30
Payout Ratio53.33%60.66%68.00%75.33%82.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71.9281.0189.9398.66107.22115.60122.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Year 1 PV (M)73.0373.7774.52
Year 2 PV (M)73.0774.5776.08
Year 3 PV (M)72.2774.5076.78
Year 4 PV (M)70.7973.7376.75
Year 5 PV (M)68.8072.3876.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,068.631,124.261,182.18
Equity Value (M)1,426.591,493.211,562.42
Shares Outstanding (M)102.74102.74102.74
Fair Value$13.89$14.53$15.21
Upside / Downside7.64%12.66%17.89%

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