Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Rio Tinto Group (RIO1.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$170.16 - $296.20$224.10
Multi-Stage$204.77 - $223.79$214.11
Blended Fair Value$219.10
Current Price$58.53
Upside274.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.43%6.59%4.303.967.189.403.756.323.282.601.672.49
YoY Growth--8.58%-44.83%-23.64%150.44%-40.66%92.94%26.02%55.96%-33.15%9.87%
Dividend Yield--7.32%5.29%10.12%13.88%4.94%10.67%6.91%4.86%4.26%8.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,021.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,566.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,455.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,204.202,627.631,576.58
Cash Retained (M)7,455.007,455.007,455.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,204.20-2,627.63-1,576.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,250.804,827.385,878.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.061,634.061,634.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.953.60
LTM Dividend per Share8.308.308.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.953.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.2911.2611.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate2.45%3.45%4.45%
Fair Value$170.16$224.10$296.20
Upside / Downside190.73%282.88%406.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,021.0021,745.8322,495.6423,271.3224,073.7324,903.8225,650.94
Payout Ratio64.54%69.63%74.72%79.81%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,566.0015,141.2616,809.0318,573.8120,440.3122,413.4423,727.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate2.45%3.45%4.45%
Year 1 PV (M)13,801.8413,936.5614,071.28
Year 2 PV (M)13,966.6614,240.6514,517.30
Year 3 PV (M)14,067.7914,483.7714,907.88
Year 4 PV (M)14,111.9614,671.0715,246.63
Year 5 PV (M)14,105.3314,807.3215,536.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)264,557.25277,723.55291,408.92
Equity Value (M)334,610.84349,862.93365,688.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,634.061,634.061,634.06
Fair Value$204.77$214.11$223.79
Upside / Downside249.86%265.81%282.35%

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