Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

QCR Holdings, Inc. (QCRH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$310.86 - $1,425.18$706.17
Multi-Stage$158.61 - $173.71$166.02
Blended Fair Value$436.10
Current Price$75.64
Upside476.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.37%7.45%0.240.240.230.220.220.220.190.150.120.05
YoY Growth--0.07%2.16%3.98%0.37%0.32%14.15%32.32%25.83%153.44%-60.19%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.40%0.53%0.39%0.47%0.82%0.57%0.33%0.28%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.3515.229.13
Cash Retained (M)118.71118.71118.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.35-15.22-9.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)94.36103.49109.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.9916.9916.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.556.096.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.556.096.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.736.276.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.45%7.45%7.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$310.86$706.17$1,425.18
Upside / Downside310.97%833.60%1,784.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121.76129.67138.10147.07156.63166.81171.82
Payout Ratio2.50%20.00%37.50%55.00%72.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.0425.9351.7980.89113.56150.13158.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.45%7.45%7.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.9124.1424.36
Year 2 PV (M)44.0244.8645.70
Year 3 PV (M)63.3965.2167.07
Year 4 PV (M)82.0585.2188.45
Year 5 PV (M)100.01104.84109.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,381.482,496.512,615.94
Equity Value (M)2,694.872,820.762,951.38
Shares Outstanding (M)16.9916.9916.99
Fair Value$158.61$166.02$173.71
Upside / Downside109.69%119.49%129.66%

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