DDM Analysis: PXD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$668.80 - $3,936.94	$1,231.31
Multi-Stage	$405.25 - $442.56	$423.57
Blended Fair Value	$827.44
Current Price	$263.96
Upside	213.47%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	126.78%	76.67%	13.73	26.09	6.63	1.44	0.53	0.23	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-47.38%	293.29%	360.69%	172.44%	130.91%	292.86%	7.69%	8.33%	0.00%	7.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.20%	12.78%	2.65%	0.91%	0.75%	0.15%	0.03%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,756.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,580.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,176.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	951.20	594.50	356.70
Cash Retained (M)	2,176.00	2,176.00	2,176.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-951.20	-594.50	-356.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,224.80	1,581.50	1,819.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	240.25	240.25	240.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.10	6.58	7.57
LTM Dividend per Share	10.74	10.74	10.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.10	6.58	7.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend	15.84	17.32	18.31
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$668.80	$1,231.31	$3,936.94
Upside / Downside	153.37%	366.48%	1,391.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,756.00	5,065.14	5,394.37	5,745.01	6,118.43	6,516.13	6,711.62
Payout Ratio	54.25%	61.40%	68.55%	75.70%	82.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,580.00	3,109.89	3,697.75	4,348.91	5,069.09	5,864.52	6,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,852.53	2,879.57	2,906.61
Year 2 PV (M)	3,111.08	3,170.33	3,230.15
Year 3 PV (M)	3,356.13	3,452.48	3,550.65
Year 4 PV (M)	3,588.19	3,726.18	3,868.11
Year 5 PV (M)	3,807.71	3,991.63	4,182.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	80,646.86	84,542.13	88,586.48
Equity Value (M)	97,362.50	101,762.32	106,324.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	240.25	240.25	240.25
Fair Value	$405.25	$423.57	$442.56
Upside / Downside	53.53%	60.47%	67.66%

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Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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