DDM Analysis: PST.MI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.39 - $27.31	$21.94
Multi-Stage	$17.32 - $18.83	$18.06
Blended Fair Value	$20.00
Current Price	$20.19
Upside	-0.92%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.52%	8.83%	0.90	0.68	0.62	0.51	0.47	0.60	0.42	0.39	0.34	0.19
YoY Growth	-	-	31.94%	10.24%	21.00%	7.99%	-20.80%	40.98%	7.86%	14.64%	77.60%	-50.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.48%	5.92%	6.58%	4.96%	4.37%	7.75%	4.90%	5.30%	5.49%	2.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,166.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,409.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	757.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	433.20	270.75	162.45
Cash Retained (M)	757.00	757.00	757.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-433.20	-270.75	-162.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	323.80	486.25	594.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,294.08	1,294.08	1,294.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.38	0.46
LTM Dividend per Share	1.09	1.09	1.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.38	0.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.34	1.46	1.55
WACC / Discount Rate	12.19%	12.19%	12.19%
Growth Rate	4.17%	5.17%	6.17%
Fair Value	$17.39	$21.94	$27.31
Upside / Downside	-13.85%	8.68%	35.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,166.00	2,277.90	2,395.58	2,519.33	2,649.48	2,786.36	2,869.95
Payout Ratio	65.05%	70.04%	75.03%	80.02%	85.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,409.00	1,595.45	1,797.41	2,015.98	2,252.33	2,507.72	2,654.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	12.19%	12.19%	12.19%
Growth Rate	4.17%	5.17%	6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,408.64	1,422.16	1,435.68
Year 2 PV (M)	1,401.13	1,428.16	1,455.45
Year 3 PV (M)	1,387.49	1,427.84	1,468.96
Year 4 PV (M)	1,368.65	1,421.97	1,476.83
Year 5 PV (M)	1,345.41	1,411.24	1,479.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,506.16	16,264.88	17,053.03
Equity Value (M)	22,417.48	23,376.26	24,369.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,294.08	1,294.08	1,294.08
Fair Value	$17.32	$18.06	$18.83
Upside / Downside	-14.20%	-10.53%	-6.73%

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Poste Italiane S.p.A. (PST.MI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener