Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Porto Seguro S.A. (PSSA3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.52 - $199.23$132.98
Multi-Stage$69.02 - $75.34$72.12
Blended Fair Value$102.55
Current Price$49.86
Upside105.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.05%2.77%1.290.550.971.301.061.011.910.500.070.32
YoY Growth--134.79%-43.27%-25.42%22.41%5.22%-47.17%279.97%613.32%-77.75%-67.76%
Dividend Yield--3.23%1.85%4.55%7.17%5.57%5.78%9.44%3.11%0.76%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,212.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)871.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,341.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)642.60401.62240.97
Cash Retained (M)2,341.872,341.872,341.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-642.60-401.62-240.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,699.271,940.242,100.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)647.94647.94647.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.622.993.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.341.341.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.622.993.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.344.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$93.52$132.98$199.23
Upside / Downside87.57%166.70%299.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,212.983,421.833,644.253,881.124,133.404,402.074,534.13
Payout Ratio27.11%39.69%52.27%64.84%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)871.121,358.121,904.762,516.713,200.183,961.864,194.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,223.341,234.941,246.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,545.461,574.891,604.61
Year 3 PV (M)1,839.331,892.131,945.94
Year 4 PV (M)2,106.742,187.752,271.09
Year 5 PV (M)2,349.332,462.802,580.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,656.3937,378.6139,166.74
Equity Value (M)44,720.5946,731.1348,815.52
Shares Outstanding (M)647.94647.94647.94
Fair Value$69.02$72.12$75.34
Upside / Downside38.43%44.65%51.10%

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