DDM Analysis: PGW.NZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.95 - $1.30	$1.13
Multi-Stage	$1.83 - $2.01	$1.92
Blended Fair Value	$1.52
Current Price	$2.09
Upside	-27.14%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-31.47%	-26.67%	0.03	0.10	0.29	0.31	0.12	0.17	0.22	0.39	0.39	0.38
YoY Growth	-	-	-75.54%	-64.25%	-6.94%	149.72%	-25.64%	-23.65%	-43.89%	0.32%	1.48%	-31.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.20%	5.81%	7.03%	7.06%	3.64%	6.16%	4.11%	5.89%	6.68%	9.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	13.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.75	1.72	1.03
Cash Retained (M)	4.07	4.07	4.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.75	-1.72	-1.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.32	2.35	3.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	75.48	75.48	75.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.15	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	-5.23%	-4.23%	-3.23%
Fair Value	$0.95	$1.13	$1.30
Upside / Downside	-54.65%	-46.17%	-37.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	13.73	13.15	12.59	12.06	11.55	11.06	11.39
Payout Ratio	70.38%	74.31%	78.23%	82.15%	86.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.66	9.77	9.85	9.91	9.94	9.95	10.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	-5.23%	-4.23%	-3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)	8.84	8.94	9.03
Year 2 PV (M)	8.07	8.24	8.42
Year 3 PV (M)	7.35	7.58	7.82
Year 4 PV (M)	6.67	6.96	7.26
Year 5 PV (M)	6.05	6.38	6.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)	101.42	106.89	112.58
Equity Value (M)	138.41	144.98	151.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	75.48	75.48	75.48
Fair Value	$1.83	$1.92	$2.01
Upside / Downside	-12.27%	-8.10%	-3.76%

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PGG Wrightson Limited (PGW.NZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener