Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - MortgagesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.27 - $177.04$137.47
Multi-Stage$362.08 - $399.82$380.57
Blended Fair Value$259.02
Current Price$123.88
Upside109.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.970.771.020.990.580.000.190.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.85%-24.12%3.26%70.92%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.86%1.71%1.85%0.86%0.00%0.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)498.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)436.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.7562.3437.41
Cash Retained (M)436.44436.44436.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.75-62.34-37.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)336.70374.10399.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.6853.6853.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.276.977.43
LTM Dividend per Share1.161.161.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.276.977.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.438.138.59
WACC / Discount Rate4.85%4.85%4.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$106.27$137.47$177.04
Upside / Downside-14.22%10.97%42.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)498.74493.75488.81483.92479.08474.29488.52
Payout Ratio12.49%27.99%43.49%59.00%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.29138.21212.60285.49356.91426.86451.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.85%4.85%4.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)130.48131.81133.14
Year 2 PV (M)189.49193.37197.30
Year 3 PV (M)240.22247.65255.23
Year 4 PV (M)283.51295.26307.37
Year 5 PV (M)320.11336.78354.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,271.8419,223.3020,213.98
Equity Value (M)19,435.6520,428.1721,461.16
Shares Outstanding (M)53.6853.6853.68
Fair Value$362.08$380.57$399.82
Upside / Downside192.29%207.21%222.75%

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