Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.95 - $5.87$4.86
Multi-Stage$4.48 - $4.88$4.68
Blended Fair Value$4.77
Current Price$24.13
Upside-80.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.150.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.083.171.90
Cash Retained (M)15.1915.1915.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.08-3.17-1.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.1112.0213.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)54.2054.2054.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate11.73%11.73%11.73%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Fair Value$3.95$4.86$5.87
Upside / Downside-83.63%-79.84%-75.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.3926.1726.9627.7928.6329.5130.39
Payout Ratio40.17%50.14%60.10%70.07%80.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.2013.1216.2119.4722.9226.5628.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.73%11.73%11.73%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)11.6311.7411.85
Year 2 PV (M)12.7312.9813.23
Year 3 PV (M)13.5513.9614.37
Year 4 PV (M)14.1414.7015.28
Year 5 PV (M)14.5215.2516.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)176.04184.84193.98
Equity Value (M)242.62253.47264.72
Shares Outstanding (M)54.2054.2054.20
Fair Value$4.48$4.68$4.88
Upside / Downside-81.45%-80.62%-79.76%

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