Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

P.C.S. Machine Group Holding Public Company Limited (PCSGH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.55 - $74.09$44.03
Multi-Stage$37.09 - $41.06$39.03
Blended Fair Value$41.53
Current Price$3.20
Upside1,197.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%-2.20%0.300.400.300.400.200.200.270.280.240.40
YoY Growth---25.00%33.33%-25.00%100.00%0.00%-25.93%-3.57%16.67%-40.00%6.71%
Dividend Yield--8.58%8.01%5.83%7.77%3.85%4.43%3.97%3.92%3.97%7.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)623.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)381.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)242.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.7877.9946.79
Cash Retained (M)242.64242.64242.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.78-77.99-46.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.86164.65195.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,523.551,523.551,523.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate-2.41%-2.41%-2.41%
Growth Rate-4.20%-3.20%-2.20%
Fair Value$17.55$44.03$74.09
Upside / Downside448.58%1,275.82%2,215.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)623.89603.95584.64565.96547.87530.35546.26
Payout Ratio61.11%66.89%72.67%78.44%84.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)381.25403.96424.83443.96461.42477.32505.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.41%-2.41%-2.41%
Growth Rate-4.20%-3.20%-2.20%
Year 1 PV (M)409.66413.93418.21
Year 2 PV (M)436.89446.06455.32
Year 3 PV (M)462.99477.64492.60
Year 4 PV (M)487.99508.69530.04
Year 5 PV (M)511.92539.20567.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,192.3457,080.3160,090.11
Equity Value (M)56,501.8059,465.8462,553.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,523.551,523.551,523.55
Fair Value$37.09$39.03$41.06
Upside / Downside1,058.93%1,119.72%1,183.06%

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