DDM Analysis: ORI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$33.86 - $53.50	$42.84
Multi-Stage	$56.87 - $62.22	$59.49
Blended Fair Value	$51.17
Current Price	$42.47
Upside	20.48%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.78%	3.74%	1.09	1.10	2.32	4.08	1.00	2.16	2.00	0.80	0.78	0.77
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.31%	-52.48%	-43.12%	307.52%	-53.57%	8.00%	150.91%	2.58%	1.31%	1.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.78%	3.58%	9.29%	15.77%	4.58%	14.14%	9.40%	3.71%	3.79%	4.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	834.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	776.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	57.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	166.80	104.25	62.55
Cash Retained (M)	57.30	57.30	57.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-166.80	-104.25	-62.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-109.50	-46.95	-5.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	249.79	249.79	249.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.44	-0.19	-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	3.11	3.11	3.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.44	-0.19	-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.67	2.92	3.09
WACC / Discount Rate	7.87%	7.87%	7.87%
Growth Rate	-0.01%	0.99%	1.99%
Fair Value	$33.86	$42.84	$53.50
Upside / Downside	-20.27%	0.86%	25.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	834.00	842.23	850.53	858.92	867.40	875.95	902.23
Payout Ratio	93.13%	92.50%	91.88%	91.25%	90.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	776.70	779.09	781.45	783.78	786.09	788.36	834.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.87%	7.87%	7.87%
Growth Rate	-0.01%	0.99%	1.99%
Year 1 PV (M)	715.07	722.22	729.38
Year 2 PV (M)	658.31	671.54	684.90
Year 3 PV (M)	606.02	624.38	643.12
Year 4 PV (M)	557.85	580.51	603.85
Year 5 PV (M)	513.50	539.69	566.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,153.71	11,722.74	12,314.76
Equity Value (M)	14,204.46	14,861.09	15,542.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	249.79	249.79	249.79
Fair Value	$56.87	$59.49	$62.22
Upside / Downside	33.90%	40.09%	46.51%

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Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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