Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.69 - $126.50$69.68
Multi-Stage$30.43 - $33.23$31.80
Blended Fair Value$50.74
Current Price$21.95
Upside131.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.40%14.78%0.570.540.530.280.280.270.250.220.200.17
YoY Growth--6.18%1.36%91.34%-0.13%3.88%8.90%13.16%7.50%21.57%15.30%
Dividend Yield--2.70%3.23%3.68%1.70%1.44%2.03%1.46%1.28%1.16%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)606.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)391.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.3075.8145.49
Cash Retained (M)391.34391.34391.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.30-75.81-45.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.04315.53345.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)334.34334.34334.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.941.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.941.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.451.591.68
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.69$69.68$126.50
Upside / Downside103.60%217.46%476.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)606.51645.93687.92732.63780.25830.97855.90
Payout Ratio35.48%46.38%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.16299.59394.08499.58617.14747.87791.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)272.45275.04277.62
Year 2 PV (M)325.93332.14338.40
Year 3 PV (M)375.77386.56397.55
Year 4 PV (M)422.15438.39455.09
Year 5 PV (M)465.25487.72511.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,311.078,712.509,129.29
Equity Value (M)10,172.6210,632.3311,109.00
Shares Outstanding (M)334.34334.34334.34
Fair Value$30.43$31.80$33.23
Upside / Downside38.62%44.88%51.38%

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