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Definitive Analysis

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NZX Limited (NZX.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Data & Stock ExchangesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.18 - $9.94$5.11
Multi-Stage$2.67 - $2.92$2.80
Blended Fair Value$3.95
Current Price$1.49
Upside165.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.78%3.77%0.050.050.050.040.040.040.050.050.050.05
YoY Growth--1.64%3.42%23.70%-11.35%14.91%-26.62%8.72%0.06%1.64%34.69%
Dividend Yield--3.53%4.66%4.06%2.23%2.33%2.91%5.35%4.44%4.74%4.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.085.053.03
Cash Retained (M)9.119.119.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.08-5.05-3.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.034.066.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)329.80329.80329.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate4.35%5.35%6.35%
Fair Value$3.18$5.11$9.94
Upside / Downside113.71%242.65%567.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.4142.5744.8547.2549.7852.4454.01
Payout Ratio77.46%79.97%82.47%84.98%87.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.3034.0436.9940.1543.5547.1949.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate4.35%5.35%6.35%
Year 1 PV (M)31.3531.6531.95
Year 2 PV (M)31.3731.9732.58
Year 3 PV (M)31.3532.2733.19
Year 4 PV (M)31.3232.5333.79
Year 5 PV (M)31.2532.7834.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)725.21760.63797.42
Equity Value (M)881.85921.83963.30
Shares Outstanding (M)329.80329.80329.80
Fair Value$2.67$2.80$2.92
Upside / Downside79.45%87.59%96.03%

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