Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The New York Times Company (NYT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.42 - $191.19$92.44
Multi-Stage$36.56 - $39.95$38.22
Blended Fair Value$65.33
Current Price$55.98
Upside16.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.26%12.79%0.500.420.340.270.230.190.160.160.160.16
YoY Growth--19.28%22.32%25.26%17.95%21.62%19.63%1.59%0.41%-2.64%7.00%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.98%0.89%0.58%0.48%0.60%0.48%0.67%1.10%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)337.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)235.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.5742.2325.34
Cash Retained (M)235.44235.44235.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.57-42.23-25.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.87193.21210.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)164.86164.86164.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.171.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.171.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.641.791.90
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.42$92.44$191.19
Upside / Downside0.78%65.14%241.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)337.87359.83383.22408.13434.66462.91476.80
Payout Ratio30.32%42.25%54.19%66.13%78.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.43152.04207.66269.88339.31416.62441.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)138.73140.04141.36
Year 2 PV (M)172.89176.19179.51
Year 3 PV (M)205.02210.91216.90
Year 4 PV (M)235.20244.24253.54
Year 5 PV (M)263.50276.23289.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,011.765,253.835,505.16
Equity Value (M)6,027.106,301.436,585.92
Shares Outstanding (M)164.86164.86164.86
Fair Value$36.56$38.22$39.95
Upside / Downside-34.69%-31.72%-28.64%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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