DDM Analysis: NWE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$79.14 - $203.36	$119.83
Multi-Stage	$82.76 - $90.54	$86.58
Blended Fair Value	$103.20
Current Price	$58.61
Upside	76.09%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.62%	9.33%	2.58	2.51	2.28	2.09	1.96	1.88	1.78	1.65	1.56	1.47
YoY Growth	-	-	2.95%	9.99%	9.01%	6.76%	4.54%	5.43%	7.83%	5.75%	6.34%	38.51%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.47%	4.96%	3.95%	3.46%	3.01%	3.14%	2.53%	3.07%	2.66%	2.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	216.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	160.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)	56.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	43.39	27.12	16.27
Cash Retained (M)	56.25	56.25	56.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-43.39	-27.12	-16.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	12.86	29.13	39.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	61.36	61.36	61.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.47	0.65
LTM Dividend per Share	2.62	2.62	2.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.47	0.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.83	3.09	3.27
WACC / Discount Rate	7.07%	7.07%	7.07%
Growth Rate	3.37%	4.37%	5.37%
Fair Value	$79.14	$119.83	$203.36
Upside / Downside	35.02%	104.45%	246.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	216.93	226.41	236.31	246.65	257.43	268.69	276.75
Payout Ratio	74.07%	77.26%	80.44%	83.63%	86.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	160.68	174.92	190.10	206.27	223.49	241.82	255.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.07%	7.07%	7.07%
Growth Rate	3.37%	4.37%	5.37%
Year 1 PV (M)	161.81	163.37	164.94
Year 2 PV (M)	162.67	165.83	169.02
Year 3 PV (M)	163.27	168.06	172.93
Year 4 PV (M)	163.64	170.07	176.68
Year 5 PV (M)	163.79	171.87	180.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,262.87	4,473.09	4,691.52
Equity Value (M)	5,078.05	5,312.28	5,555.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	61.36	61.36	61.36
Fair Value	$82.76	$86.58	$90.54
Upside / Downside	41.21%	47.72%	54.48%

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Northwestern Energy Group Inc (NWE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener