DDM Analysis: NTGY.MC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.43 - $26.32	$21.63
Multi-Stage	$80.38 - $88.88	$84.54
Blended Fair Value	$53.08
Current Price	$27.00
Upside	96.60%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.76%	-1.57%	1.00	1.52	1.56	1.78	1.88	1.98	1.46	1.34	1.59	1.12
YoY Growth	-	-	-33.93%	-3.07%	-12.13%	-5.27%	-5.21%	35.79%	9.03%	-15.86%	42.62%	-4.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.89%	7.47%	5.64%	6.55%	8.99%	12.30%	5.84%	6.90%	7.75%	6.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,152.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	852.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	401.00	250.63	150.38
Cash Retained (M)	852.29	852.29	852.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-401.00	-250.63	-150.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	451.29	601.67	701.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	959.03	959.03	959.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.63	0.73
LTM Dividend per Share	1.20	1.20	1.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.63	0.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.67	1.83	1.93
WACC / Discount Rate	4.70%	4.70%	4.70%
Growth Rate	-4.47%	-3.47%	-2.47%
Fair Value	$17.43	$21.63	$26.32
Upside / Downside	-35.44%	-19.91%	-2.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,005.00	1,935.43	1,868.26	1,803.43	1,740.85	1,680.45	1,730.86
Payout Ratio	57.49%	63.99%	70.50%	77.00%	83.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,152.71	1,238.54	1,317.03	1,388.59	1,453.58	1,512.40	1,601.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.70%	4.70%	4.70%
Growth Rate	-4.47%	-3.47%	-2.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,170.74	1,183.00	1,195.25
Year 2 PV (M)	1,176.78	1,201.55	1,226.57
Year 3 PV (M)	1,172.79	1,210.01	1,248.01
Year 4 PV (M)	1,160.48	1,209.84	1,260.76
Year 5 PV (M)	1,141.34	1,202.34	1,265.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	71,261.49	75,070.19	79,040.04
Equity Value (M)	77,083.62	81,076.93	85,236.55
Shares Outstanding (M)	959.03	959.03	959.03
Fair Value	$80.38	$84.54	$88.88
Upside / Downside	197.69%	213.11%	229.18%

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Financial Statements

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Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. (NTGY.MC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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