Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$129.44 - $294.99$188.43
Multi-Stage$130.63 - $143.05$136.72
Blended Fair Value$162.58
Current Price$107.01
Upside51.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.44%7.05%2.372.282.212.052.042.001.911.811.651.35
YoY Growth--3.95%2.76%8.04%0.34%2.28%4.63%5.63%9.47%22.31%12.75%
Dividend Yield--2.55%2.46%3.81%2.92%2.62%2.78%2.53%3.03%2.32%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.2512.667.59
Cash Retained (M)63.0663.0663.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.25-12.66-7.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.8150.4055.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.6315.6315.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.743.233.55
LTM Dividend per Share2.442.442.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.743.233.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.185.675.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate3.43%4.43%5.43%
Fair Value$129.44$188.43$294.99
Upside / Downside20.96%76.09%175.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.25105.73110.42115.31120.42125.75129.52
Payout Ratio37.72%48.18%58.63%69.09%79.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.1950.9464.7479.6795.79113.18119.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate3.43%4.43%5.43%
Year 1 PV (M)46.9047.3547.81
Year 2 PV (M)54.8855.9557.02
Year 3 PV (M)62.1864.0065.85
Year 4 PV (M)68.8371.5374.31
Year 5 PV (M)74.8878.5782.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,733.641,819.091,907.87
Equity Value (M)2,041.312,136.492,235.27
Shares Outstanding (M)15.6315.6315.63
Fair Value$130.63$136.72$143.05
Upside / Downside22.08%27.77%33.68%

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