Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.99 - $18.32$14.22
Multi-Stage$37.84 - $41.77$39.76
Blended Fair Value$26.99
Current Price$6.00
Upside349.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.001.091.871.811.721.392.46
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-41.85%3.28%5.14%24.14%-43.70%32.73%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%45.64%47.90%12.19%13.76%9.90%12.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.0915.689.41
Cash Retained (M)94.6994.6994.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.09-15.68-9.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.6079.0185.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.84130.84130.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate4.84%4.84%4.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.99$14.22$18.32
Upside / Downside83.11%136.95%205.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.44124.18122.94121.71120.49119.29122.87
Payout Ratio24.52%37.61%50.71%63.81%76.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7546.7162.3477.6692.66107.36113.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.84%4.84%4.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)44.1044.5545.00
Year 2 PV (M)55.5856.7257.87
Year 3 PV (M)65.3767.3969.45
Year 4 PV (M)73.6476.7079.84
Year 5 PV (M)80.5684.7689.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,631.324,872.485,123.59
Equity Value (M)4,950.585,202.605,464.88
Shares Outstanding (M)130.84130.84130.84
Fair Value$37.84$39.76$41.77
Upside / Downside530.63%562.73%596.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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