DDM Analysis: NECB

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$155.71 - $642.32	$400.97
Multi-Stage	$76.59 - $83.80	$80.13
Blended Fair Value	$240.55
Current Price	$20.57
Upside	1,069.42%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	58.41%	29.73%	0.58	0.27	0.51	0.17	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	115.25%	-46.83%	203.76%	124.31%	27.92%	39.22%	0.53%	0.18%	0.18%	-3.61%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.47%	1.72%	3.86%	1.36%	0.60%	0.99%	0.50%	0.54%	0.67%	0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	43.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	31.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.76	5.48	3.29
Cash Retained (M)	31.90	31.90	31.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.76	-5.48	-3.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	23.14	26.42	28.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	13.57	13.57	13.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.71	1.95	2.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.88	0.88	0.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.71	1.95	2.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.58	2.83	2.99
WACC / Discount Rate	7.25%	7.25%	7.25%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$155.71	$400.97	$642.32
Upside / Downside	656.99%	1,849.31%	3,022.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	43.82	46.67	49.70	52.93	56.37	60.03	61.84
Payout Ratio	27.20%	39.76%	52.32%	64.88%	77.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.92	18.55	26.00	34.34	43.65	54.03	57.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.25%	7.25%	7.25%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.14	17.30	17.46
Year 2 PV (M)	22.18	22.61	23.03
Year 3 PV (M)	27.06	27.84	28.63
Year 4 PV (M)	31.77	32.99	34.25
Year 5 PV (M)	36.32	38.08	39.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	904.57	948.27	993.63
Equity Value (M)	1,039.05	1,087.08	1,136.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	13.57	13.57	13.57
Fair Value	$76.59	$80.13	$83.80
Upside / Downside	272.32%	289.53%	307.38%

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Sector

Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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