DDM Analysis: NCKL.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2,718.86 - $6,581.84	$4,038.43
Multi-Stage	$1,925.76 - $2,102.83	$2,012.69
Blended Fair Value	$3,025.56
Current Price	$1,190.00
Upside	154.25%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	67.71%	0.00%	26.49	50.21	8.26	15.02	0.00	2.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-47.24%	507.68%	-45.01%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.84%	5.67%	0.63%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,987,289.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,367,057.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,620,232.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,597,457.80	998,411.13	599,046.68
Cash Retained (M)	5,620,232.00	5,620,232.00	5,620,232.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,597,457.80	-998,411.13	-599,046.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,022,774.20	4,621,820.88	5,021,185.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	63,637.16	63,637.16	63,637.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share	63.21	72.63	78.90
LTM Dividend per Share	37.20	37.20	37.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	63.21	72.63	78.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend	100.41	109.82	116.10
WACC / Discount Rate	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$2,718.86	$4,038.43	$6,581.84
Upside / Downside	128.48%	239.36%	453.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,987,289.00	8,506,462.79	9,059,382.87	9,648,242.75	10,275,378.53	10,943,278.14	11,271,576.48
Payout Ratio	29.64%	41.71%	53.78%	65.85%	77.93%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,367,057.00	3,547,895.87	4,872,242.97	6,353,765.33	8,007,300.38	9,848,950.32	10,426,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,212,708.76	3,243,160.98	3,273,613.19
Year 2 PV (M)	3,995,120.87	4,071,216.70	4,148,030.42
Year 3 PV (M)	4,717,725.30	4,853,154.24	4,991,150.48
Year 4 PV (M)	5,383,789.77	5,590,835.13	5,803,795.63
Year 5 PV (M)	5,996,425.08	6,286,054.66	6,586,769.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)	99,244,108.40	104,037,635.95	109,014,623.08
Equity Value (M)	122,549,878.19	128,082,057.66	133,817,981.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	63,637.16	63,637.16	63,637.16
Fair Value	$1,925.76	$2,012.69	$2,102.83
Upside / Downside	61.83%	69.13%	76.71%

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PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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