Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.36 - $199.85$136.60
Multi-Stage$109.54 - $120.01$114.67
Blended Fair Value$125.64
Current Price$110.58
Upside13.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.69%-23.24%1.991.991.841.501.401.441.065.130.090.09
YoY Growth--0.13%7.91%22.52%7.15%-2.55%36.32%-79.42%5,519.47%0.00%-99.67%
Dividend Yield--1.80%2.89%2.37%2.57%2.01%2.60%1.37%5.47%0.14%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.572.861.71
Cash Retained (M)14.6814.6814.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.57-2.86-1.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.1111.8212.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.114.114.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.883.15
LTM Dividend per Share1.991.991.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.883.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.454.865.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate2.85%3.85%4.85%
Fair Value$97.36$136.60$199.85
Upside / Downside-11.96%23.53%80.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.8523.7324.6425.5926.5727.6028.42
Payout Ratio35.76%46.61%57.45%68.30%79.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.1711.0614.1617.4821.0324.8426.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.55%7.55%7.55%
Growth Rate2.85%3.85%4.85%
Year 1 PV (M)10.1810.2810.38
Year 2 PV (M)12.0012.2412.48
Year 3 PV (M)13.6514.0514.46
Year 4 PV (M)15.1215.7216.34
Year 5 PV (M)16.4517.2618.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)382.84401.82421.54
Equity Value (M)450.25471.37493.30
Shares Outstanding (M)4.114.114.11
Fair Value$109.54$114.67$120.01
Upside / Downside-0.94%3.70%8.53%

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