DDM Analysis: MWA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$28.92 - $77.93	$44.43
Multi-Stage	$19.65 - $21.47	$20.54
Blended Fair Value	$32.49
Current Price	$25.52
Upside	27.30%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	4.83%	13.32%	0.27	0.25	0.24	0.23	0.22	0.21	0.20	0.19	0.15	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	5.01%	4.72%	4.38%	4.89%	5.14%	3.44%	6.31%	25.42%	49.07%	34.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.04%	1.13%	1.68%	2.15%	1.53%	1.70%	1.70%	2.10%	1.22%	0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	191.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	41.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	149.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	38.34	23.96	14.38
Cash Retained (M)	149.80	149.80	149.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-38.34	-23.96	-14.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	111.46	125.84	135.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	157.45	157.45	157.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.80	0.86
LTM Dividend per Share	0.27	0.27	0.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.71	0.80	0.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.97	1.07	1.13
WACC / Discount Rate	9.05%	9.05%	9.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$28.92	$44.43	$77.93
Upside / Downside	13.31%	74.10%	205.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	191.70	204.16	217.43	231.56	246.62	262.65	270.52
Payout Ratio	21.86%	35.49%	49.11%	62.74%	76.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	41.90	72.45	106.79	145.29	188.34	236.38	250.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.05%	9.05%	9.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	65.81	66.43	67.06
Year 2 PV (M)	88.12	89.79	91.49
Year 3 PV (M)	108.90	112.02	115.21
Year 4 PV (M)	128.23	133.17	138.24
Year 5 PV (M)	146.19	153.25	160.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,556.50	2,679.98	2,808.19
Equity Value (M)	3,093.75	3,234.65	3,380.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	157.45	157.45	157.45
Fair Value	$19.65	$20.54	$21.47
Upside / Downside	-23.01%	-19.50%	-15.86%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener