DDM Analysis: MUSA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$250.02 - $401.48	$318.48
Multi-Stage	$415.48 - $457.09	$435.88
Blended Fair Value	$377.18
Current Price	$388.26
Upside	-2.85%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	1.84	1.67	1.50	1.37	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	10.18%	11.71%	9.52%	295.65%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.39%	0.39%	0.58%	0.68%	0.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	471.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	39.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	431.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	94.24	58.90	35.34
Cash Retained (M)	431.80	431.80	431.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-94.24	-58.90	-35.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	337.56	372.90	396.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19.97	19.97	19.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share	16.90	18.67	19.85
LTM Dividend per Share	1.97	1.97	1.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share	16.90	18.67	19.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	18.88	20.65	21.83
WACC / Discount Rate	7.30%	7.30%	7.30%
Growth Rate	-0.23%	0.77%	1.77%
Fair Value	$250.02	$318.48	$401.48
Upside / Downside	-35.61%	-17.97%	3.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	471.20	474.83	478.49	482.17	485.89	489.63	504.32
Payout Ratio	8.36%	24.69%	41.02%	57.34%	73.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	39.40	117.23	196.26	276.50	357.96	440.67	466.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.30%	7.30%	7.30%
Growth Rate	-0.23%	0.77%	1.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	108.17	109.25	110.34
Year 2 PV (M)	167.09	170.46	173.86
Year 3 PV (M)	217.20	223.80	230.53
Year 4 PV (M)	259.46	270.02	280.90
Year 5 PV (M)	294.71	309.78	325.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,250.38	7,621.09	8,006.82
Equity Value (M)	8,297.01	8,704.40	9,127.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	19.97	19.97	19.97
Fair Value	$415.48	$435.88	$457.09
Upside / Downside	7.01%	12.26%	17.73%

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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener