Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.07 - $497.37$279.83
Multi-Stage$122.40 - $133.76$127.98
Blended Fair Value$203.90
Current Price$72.43
Upside181.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.510.550.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--174.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.13%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)118.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)422.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.3367.7040.62
Cash Retained (M)422.90422.90422.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.33-67.70-40.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)314.57355.20382.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.364.935.30
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.364.935.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.016.576.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$181.07$279.83$497.37
Upside / Downside150.00%286.34%586.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.63576.84614.33654.26696.79742.08764.34
Payout Ratio21.92%35.54%49.15%62.77%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)118.73204.99301.96410.67532.24667.87707.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)186.29188.06189.83
Year 2 PV (M)249.39254.14258.94
Year 3 PV (M)308.24317.09326.11
Year 4 PV (M)363.06377.02391.38
Year 5 PV (M)414.03434.03454.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,302.317,655.018,021.21
Equity Value (M)8,823.339,225.369,642.26
Shares Outstanding (M)72.0972.0972.09
Fair Value$122.40$127.98$133.76
Upside / Downside68.99%76.69%84.67%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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