DDM Analysis: MOL.BD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24,542.18 - $72,835.10	$68,257.15
Multi-Stage	$10,249.42 - $11,199.19	$10,715.66
Blended Fair Value	$39,486.40
Current Price	$2,698.00
Upside	1,363.54%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.86%	14.65%	258.04	303.71	253.09	78.62	0.00	129.10	114.12	69.70	63.26	55.80
YoY Growth	-	-	-15.03%	20.00%	221.92%	5,940,300.00%	-100.00%	13.13%	63.74%	10.18%	13.37%	-15.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.81%	10.25%	9.87%	2.68%	0.00%	6.69%	3.44%	2.51%	2.56%	2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	276,734.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	215,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	61,673.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	55,346.80	34,591.75	20,755.05
Cash Retained (M)	61,673.00	61,673.00	61,673.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-55,346.80	-34,591.75	-20,755.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6,326.20	27,081.25	40,917.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	755.62	755.62	755.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	8.37	35.84	54.15
LTM Dividend per Share	284.62	284.62	284.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share	8.37	35.84	54.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	292.99	320.46	338.77
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$24,542.18	$68,257.15	$72,835.10
Upside / Downside	809.64%	2,429.92%	2,599.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	276,734.00	294,721.71	313,878.62	334,280.73	356,008.98	379,149.56	390,524.05
Payout Ratio	77.71%	80.17%	82.63%	85.09%	87.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	215,061.00	236,281.88	259,352.84	284,424.74	311,660.21	341,234.61	361,234.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	219,243.56	221,321.69	223,399.83
Year 2 PV (M)	223,297.49	227,550.68	231,844.00
Year 3 PV (M)	227,225.27	233,748.09	240,394.56
Year 4 PV (M)	231,029.29	239,914.02	249,052.59
Year 5 PV (M)	234,711.93	246,048.60	257,819.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,609,129.92	6,928,353.37	7,259,794.24
Equity Value (M)	7,744,637.45	8,096,936.45	8,462,304.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	755.62	755.62	755.62
Fair Value	$10,249.42	$10,715.66	$11,199.19
Upside / Downside	279.89%	297.17%	315.09%

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MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság (MOL.BD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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