DDM Analysis: MOG-A

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$167.67 - $440.04	$255.55
Multi-Stage	$145.75 - $159.72	$152.61
Blended Fair Value	$204.08
Current Price	$204.64
Upside	-0.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	7.64%	0.00%	1.13	1.10	1.06	1.03	1.00	0.78	1.08	0.56	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	2.69%	4.11%	3.35%	2.69%	27.35%	-27.68%	94.85%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.55%	0.56%	0.73%	1.17%	1.23%	0.99%	1.27%	0.72%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	235.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	27.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	207.78

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	47.01	29.38	17.63
Cash Retained (M)	207.78	207.78	207.78
(-) Cash Required (M)	-47.01	-29.38	-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	160.78	178.40	190.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	32.13	32.13	32.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.00	5.55	5.92
LTM Dividend per Share	0.85	0.85	0.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.00	5.55	5.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.85	6.40	6.77
WACC / Discount Rate	7.63%	7.63%	7.63%
Growth Rate	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%
Fair Value	$167.67	$255.55	$440.04
Upside / Downside	-18.07%	24.88%	115.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	235.03	246.79	259.13	272.09	285.70	300.00	309.00
Payout Ratio	11.59%	27.27%	42.96%	58.64%	74.32%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	27.25	67.31	111.31	159.55	212.33	270.00	285.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.63%	7.63%	7.63%
Growth Rate	4.00%	5.00%	6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	61.94	62.54	63.13
Year 2 PV (M)	94.26	96.08	97.92
Year 3 PV (M)	124.34	127.96	131.65
Year 4 PV (M)	152.27	158.21	164.33
Year 5 PV (M)	178.18	186.91	195.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,071.83	4,271.39	4,478.69
Equity Value (M)	4,682.82	4,903.09	5,131.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	32.13	32.13	32.13
Fair Value	$145.75	$152.61	$159.72
Upside / Downside	-28.78%	-25.43%	-21.95%

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Moog Inc. (MOG-A)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener